Russia May Be Excluded From OPEC Deal, 4 Experts Discuss Impacts

• Russia could be excluded from the OPEC production-quota agreement after missing targets, per WSJ. 
• OPEC members discussed the idea as Western sanctions and an EU ban limit Russia’s oil production. 
• Here’s what analysts anticipate could happen to global oil supply if Russia is cut from OPEC. 

Some members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) are considering removing Russia from an oil-production agreement group, The Wall Street Journal reported Tuesday.

Experts say the move could have major implications for the price of oil and the global energy market.

Russia’s economy and oil production have suffered since its late-February invasion of Ukraine, which led to Western sanctions and bans on imports of its energy. Its oil output was down by 7.5% as of mid-April, and the Kremlin said it could fall as much as 17% this year, per a report seen by Reuters. 

The OPEC members are looking at whether to boot Russia from the group’s deal to gradually increase oil production, after the country missed its target.

“It does not make sense to make them stick to a quota,” one OPEC delegate said, according to the WSJ.

Russia isn’t part of the 13-strong OPEC group of major oil producers, but leads the 10 countries allied with it in the wider OPEC+. The larger group is scheduled to meet Thursday to approve a plan to increase oil production to 432,000 barrels a day. Its goal is to stabilize the global oil supply and return it to pre-pandemic levels. 

If Russia is cut from the agreement group, the likes of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates could step in to pump more supplies. That could help lower oil prices, which have been rising and recently traded around two-month highs. 

Here’s what analysts say about OPEC+, the chance of a Russian exclusion, and what it could mean for the wider oil market: 

Jeffrey Halley, senior market analyst at OANDA: “Realistically, only Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and perhaps Iraq, can rapidly increase production, as the rest of the group can’t meet their present quotas, let alone larger redistributed ones. If Russia has agreed to this course of action, it would weigh on oil prices, rebalancing supply, and demand but not enough to send Brent crude back through $100 a barrel. If this outcome was imposed on Russia, which disagreed with it, that implies a major fracture in OPEC+ unity. That would be a much more bearish development for oil prices. My belief is that Russia has agreed to this course, or the story is incorrect. Any other outcome appears to mean OPEC shoots itself in the foot.” 

Warren Patterson and Wenyu Yao, ING strategists: “Given a number of countries have sanctioned Russian oil, it will be a challenge for Russia to increase output in the coming months and hit its output target under the OPEC+ deal. This potentially opens the door for other OPEC+ members to increase output more aggressively. However in reality, given that most members have failed to hit their output targets consistently for several months, it will likely be a struggle for the group as a whole to increase output more aggressively.”

Edward Bell, senior director of market economics at Emirates NBD: “Market conditions continue to scream out for additional supplies but so long as OPEC+ keeps its focus on ‘fundamentals’ we expect oil prices will continue to price in considerable tightness, meaning high and volatile prices will persist,” per S&P Global. 

Daniel McCarthy, strategist at Daily FX: “This could potentially open the way for other member nations to increase production, something that the US and Europe would welcome. The capacity for additional production from these other countries remains under a cloud.”